Thoughts on the 2024 General Election Fallout

Hopefully you are all recovering from the feverish run up to the election. Now that the hysteria is subsiding it’s time to dig into results for the State of New Hampshire and what that means for recreational legalization moving forward.

NATIONAL VIEW 

On October 31st 2024 Marijuana Moment reported the DEA Marijuana rescheduling hearing has been delayed until 2025.

Vice President Harris was the more vocal of the presidential candidates regarding cannabis legalization stating in a November 3rd X post that she will “…legalize recreational marijuana…” as reported in USA Today. Ultimately she won’t have that opportunity.

(11/14/24 Edit: As I publish this, 420 Intel reports the Joe Rogan Podcast says the Harris campaign told them she “wanted to avoid marijuana legalization talk as aides feared progressive backlash”. Color me surprised a politician might not be, shall we say, genuine in their support of an issue.)

So where does President-Elect Trump stand? While not coming out and directly supporting federal cannabis legalization in his campaign there are some encouraging signs from the past.

On November 6th 2024 Green Market Report published that “…the status quo is probably the worst-case scenario. In a best-case scenario, Trump pushes a Republican Senate to approve the SAFE Banking Act and possibly even more comprehensive business-friendly reforms for him to sign into law.”

Adding “That’s the hope, anyway, given Trump’s campaign promise in September of supporting the federal rescheduling process, the SAFE Banking Act, and other “common sense laws”, as the president-elect put it at the time.”

We’ll add that he also expressed support the Florida’s amendment 3 in the run up to the election.

Matt Gaetz has also been nominated for Attorney General. Love him or hate him, the good news is Cultivated News reports  this pick is a positive for cannabis as he’s “been one of the most pro-cannabis Republicans on Capitol Hill. He was one of three Republicans to break with his party to vote for the Marijuana Opportunity and Reinvestment Act in 2022, which would have federally decriminalized cannabis.”

Time will tell if federal legalization is on the table. In the meantime the tea leaves are encouraging for some serious needed federal action for cannabis operators. The ability to access unfettered banking, traditional lending and write off usual and customary business expenses would be a huge win for the industry.

Status: Cautiously Optimistic

LOCAL VIEW (figures per Manchester Ink Link Nov 8th 2024)

NH House of Representatives (224 Republicans, 176 Democrats)

Always hard to read with the massive number of State Representatives in New Hampshire (400 if you are counting) but historically this chamber has been supportive of cannabis legalization and more often than not produces quality free market bills that hit the three pillars economic opportunity, harm reduction and benefits to the widest range of residents possible.

We are confident that if the House does introduce a bill it will be in the good to great category more often than not. The operative word here is IF. We will get to that in a moment.

Status: Confident in Quality

NH Senate (16 Republicans, 8 Democrats)

One things is for sure, the complexion of the Senate has changed. Unfortunately for cannabis legalization those changes appear to be a net negative for the next two sessions.

The makeup is now 16 Republicans and 8 Democrats. One thing we’ve learned over the past five or six years is when it comes to legalization, party isn’t the deciding factor for each legislator individually. The issue does cross isles. So let’s dig in.

Here is how the Senate breaks down along with some deductions on where they might stand on the issue using past clues.

• District 1 – David Rochefort (Republican hold) – Supportive of cannabis legalization.
• District 2 – Timothy Lang (Republican hold) – Supportive of cannabis legalization.
• District 3 – Mark McConkey (Republican hold) – Does not support cannabis legalization.
• District 4 – David Watters (Democratic hold) – Supportive of cannabis legalization.
• District 5 – Suzanne Prentiss (Democratic hold) – Supportive of cannabis legalization.
• District 6 – James Gray (Republican hold) – Does not support cannabis legalization.
• District 7 – Daniel Innis (Republican hold) – Supportive of cannabis legalization.
• District 8 – Ruth Ward (Republican hold) – Does not support cannabis legalization.
• District 9 – Denise Ricciardi (Republican hold) – Does not support cannabis legalization.
• District 10 – Donovan Fenton (Democratic hold) – Supportive of cannabis legalization.
• District 11 – Tim McGough (Republican gain) – Does not support cannabis legalization.
• District 12 – Kevin Avard (Republican hold) – Does not support cannabis legalization.
• District 13 – Cindy Rosenwald (Democratic hold) – Supportive of cannabis legalization.
• District 14 – Sharon Carson (Republican hold. Elected Senate President) – Does not support cannabis legalization.
• District 15 – Tara Reardon (Democratic hold) – Supportive of cannabis legalization.
• District 16 – Keith Murphy (Republican hold) – Supportive of cannabis legalization.
• District 17 – Howard Pearl (Republican hold) – Supportive of cannabis legalization.
• District 18 – Victoria Sullivan (Republican gain) – Supportive of cannabis legalization.
• District 19 – Regina Birdsell (Republican hold) – Does not support cannabis legalization.
• District 20 – Pat Long (Democratic hold) – Supportive of cannabis legalization.
• District 21 – Rebecca Perkins-Kwoka (Democratic hold) – Supportive of cannabis legalization.
• District 22 – Daryl Abbas (Republican hold) – Supportive of cannabis legalization.
• District 23 – Bill Gannon (Republican hold) – Does not support cannabis legalization.
• District 24 – Debra Altschiller (Democratic hold) – Supportive of cannabis legalization.

Looking from a high level we count 15 supportive and 9 not supportive. Two past the thirteen needed to send a bill to the Governor’s desk. One short of veto proof majority to override a Governor’s veto.

Although having enough possible votes to send a bill to the Governor, we have two additional issues.

First, the new Senate President has historically been anti cannabis legalization. That position exerts tremendous pressure in the Senate as we saw this year with Senate President Bradley and his last minute efforts to make a horrible bill even worse.

The Governor

While a Senate President opposed to cannabis is one issue, the Governor’s office adds yet another. We’ve lived through a long period with an anti cannabis Governor who is now retiring. Although much is hidden from public view there is no doubt the Governor has a lot of power to wield when it comes to the legislature including the ultimate power of the veto.

Many great bills have been killed by our Senate in the past and I suspect sometimes that might be because a hostile Governor doesn’t want them to hit their desk.

Even if we manage to get one passed it appears, for now, that it would need a veto proof majority. At a minimum, if every Senate Democrat voted yes it would still require 8 Republicans to stand strong in the face of party and potentially immense pressure from both the Senate President and the Governor to get the 16 needed to override a Governor’s veto. Not impossible, but not probable.

Which brings me back to the IF we brought up in the House discussion. With the new landscape, we are not sure if a full legalization bill (tax and regulate) will be submitted and carried through by the House. The House may just determine it is a lost cause.

Status: Incredibly Pessimistic

That doesn’t mean there won’t be efforts to protect and expand our medical industry, to decriminalize even further or to perhaps just legalize possession and use only. And we’ll be here to support those efforts.

For now, given the new reality, we’ll be working on making the conservative argument for legalization. There is always a chance we can bring around the opposing Senators and Governor to forge a path. No matter how small a chance, we’ll be working at it in the coming months.

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*The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the New Hampshire Cannabis Association